Prince Edward County residents aren’t upset because they oppose public services — they’re upset because the numbers no longer add up.
Population and income growth remain modest. Municipal operating costs have grown five to six times faster than population and far faster than residents’ real ability to pay.
Since 2016, Prince Edward County’s population has grown by approximately 6–8 percent, based on Statistics Canada Census data. The permanent population increased from about 24,000 in 2016 to 25,700 in 2021, with only modest growth since then.¹
Over roughly the same period, median household income increased by about 15–18 percent in nominal terms, according to Statistics Canada data for Ontario census divisions.² However, once inflation is taken into account, that income growth largely disappears.
Using Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Ontario, real (inflation-adjusted) household income growth in Prince Edward County has been minimal — and in some years effectively flat or negative.³ Rising housing costs, food prices, fuel, insurance, utilities, and interest rates have absorbed most nominal gains, leaving many households with little or no increase in real purchasing power.
Municipal spending tells a very different story.
Over the same period, Prince Edward County’s tax-supported operating budget has grown by more than 40 percent, increasing from roughly $62 million in the mid-2010s to approximately $88 million in 2026, based on County-adopted budgets.⁴ That growth far exceeds population growth and dramatically outpaces real (inflation-adjusted) income growth for residents.
This gap is not theoretical. It shows up directly in household budgets. The impact is outright harm to our families.
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The Household Impact: Where the Pressure Is Felt
Property taxes are not abstract accounting entries. They are household trade-offs.
For a typical Prince Edward County household paying over $4,000 per year in property taxes, compounded increases over a decade translate into hundreds of dollars more each year compared to the mid-2010s.⁴
That money is no longer available for:
- children’s hockey, soccer, and activities,
- music lessons and school trips,
- family dinners and local businesses,
- saving for emergencies, education, or retirement.
In a period of high inflation, these trade-offs are felt immediately and personally.
Population Growth: Modest, Not Transformational
Population growth is often cited as a justification for expanding municipal budgets. In Prince Edward County’s case, that argument only goes so far.
A roughly 6–8 percent increase over a decade is meaningful, but it does not resemble the rapid expansion seen in fast-growing urban or suburban municipalities. It does not, on its own, explain a municipal operating budget that has expanded by more than 40 percent.¹
Put simply, the County has not grown fast enough — in people — to justify the scale of government growth residents are being asked to fund.
Income Growth: Nominal Gains, Little Real Relief
On paper, household incomes in Prince Edward County have risen. In practice, those gains have offered limited relief.
Statistics Canada data shows nominal median household income growth in the range of 15–18 percent since the mid-2010s.² However, Ontario-wide inflation over the same period has consumed most of those gains.³
For many residents — particularly seniors on fixed incomes and young families balancing childcare and housing — real disposable income has stagnated or declined. This matters because municipal taxes are paid from disposable income, not from nominal statistics.
Why Scrutiny Is Reasonable — and Required
None of this is an argument against public services. Municipal government plays a vital role in infrastructure, safety, planning, and community well-being.
But Ontario’s Municipal Act requires councils to maintain financial integrity and accountability. When municipal budgets grow much faster than population and much faster than residents’ real incomes, councils have a responsibility to explain:
- what is driving the growth,
- which costs are unavoidable versus discretionary,
- what alternatives were considered, and
- what limits exist on future expansion.
Scrutiny in this context is not ideological or anti-government. It is a basic requirement of responsible governance.
The Question Residents Are Really Asking
Why is the cost of municipal government growing so much faster than the community itself — and how will Council ensure that future growth is disciplined, transparent, and aligned with what residents can realistically afford?
Until that question is answered clearly, frustration will continue to grow.
Municipal Budget Growth: Structural and Compounding
The County’s operating budget growth has been structural, not one-time.
Prince Edward County’s adopted budgets show operating expenditures increasing from approximately $62 million (2015–2016) to roughly $88 million in 2026.⁴ This growth reflects ongoing administrative costs, staffing, governance expenses, technology systems, professional services, and debt servicing that compound year after year.
Once embedded in the base budget, these costs become difficult to unwind and often form the starting point for the next year’s increase.
The Numbers Side by Side: Percentage Growth Since 2016
Looking at percentage growth rather than raw dollar figures makes the disconnect clear.
Percentage Change Since 2016
| Indicator | 2016 → 2021 | 2016 → 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Population | +6% | +6–8% |
| Median household income (nominal) | +15% | +15–18% |
| Median household income (real, inflation-adjusted) | +2–4% | ~0–3% |
| Municipal operating budget | +21% | +40%+ |
Actual Growth Using Real Numbers
Percentages show direction. Actual numbers show scale.
Using publicly available Statistics Canada data and County-adopted budgets, the chart below translates percentage growth into real-world values residents recognize.
Actual Values Behind the Growth
| Indicator | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 (est./adopted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 24,000 | 25,700 | 26,000 |
| Median household income (nominal) | $65,000 | $75,000 | $77,000 |
| Median household income (real, 2016$) | $65,000 | $67,000 | $66,500 |
| Municipal operating budget | $62M | $75M | $88M |
What the Chart Shows Clearly
Population: Gradual, Manageable Growth
Prince Edward County added roughly 2,000 permanent residents over a decade. This is real growth — but it is incremental, not transformational.
Income: Paper Gains, Little Real Relief
Median household income rose in nominal terms. But once inflation is accounted for, real income has barely moved since 2016 — and is likely slightly lower in 2026 than in 2021.
Residents are not materially better off.
Municipal Budget: A Different Trajectory Entirely
Over the same period, the County’s operating budget increased by approximately $26 million — a jump of more than 40 percent.
That growth is:
- far larger in absolute dollars than population growth,
- far faster than real income growth,
- and structural, not one-time.
Why This Matters to Households
This is where the disconnect becomes personal.
A household earning roughly $66,000 in real (inflation-adjusted) terms in 2026 is being asked to support a municipal government that costs $26 million more per year than it did a decade ago.
That gap doesn’t disappear. It shows up as:
- higher property taxes,
- higher fees,
- reduced household flexibility.
Every additional tax dollar is a dollar not spent on children’s sports, music lessons, local businesses, family dinners, or savings — especially in an already high-inflation environment.
Transparency Note
Because these indicators operate on very different scales, charts typically:
- normalize values (indexes), or
- present them in parallel tables like the one above.
County First has chosen to show both:
- percentage growth (to show relative pace), and
- actual numbers (to show real-world impact).
That combination is essential for honest public understanding.
The Core Question This Raises
If:
- population increased by about 2,000 people, and
- real household incomes are essentially flat,
why has the cost of municipal government increased by $26 million per year?
Answering that question — clearly, transparently, and with evidence — is not political.
It is the basic responsibility of Council.
Inline Sources
¹ Statistics Canada, Census of Population 2016 & 2021 — Prince Edward County
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/index-eng.cfm
² Statistics Canada, Median Household Income, Ontario Census Divisions
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/98-10-0215-01
³ Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index (Ontario)
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/
⁴ Prince Edward County, Adopted Operating Budgets (2015–2026)
https://www.thecounty.ca/county-government/finance-and-budget/